The Democrats’ national convention begins … Their worry is Musk’s support for Trump

The Democratic National Convention kicked off on Monday in Chicago, before the echoes of former US president and current candidate Donald Trump’s “chat” with his new billionaire “friend,” X owner Elon Musk, had gone quiet (will they ever?).

Under ordinary circumstances, the national convention of the president’s party is considered the most significant in the lead-up to the US presidential election. However, who said that these are ordinary circumstances?

It is not normal for the Democrats to push their presidential candidate and current president (Joe Biden) out of the race, after he had effectively been confirmed as the party’s nominee, due to concerns around his health.

Hastily resolving the issue of Biden’s replacement, with his Vice President Kamala Harris nominated even before the party’s delegates headed to Chicago, is not normal either.

Moreover, it is not normal, at least for the Democrats, to present a unified front despite the presence of several wings, including Bernie Sanders’ progressive wing.

Nor is it normal to postpone discussing a series of prominent contentious issues or to supposedly keep the electorate in the dark with regard to the Democrats’ position on the war in Ukraine, the displacement war on Gaza and the unrest in US universities. These are all matters that concern Democratic Party activists, especially youths and minorities.

With all of that in mind, there can be no doubt about what brings the party together: the situation at the opposite end of the political spectrum.

True, the Republicans have once again placed their trust in Trump, despite all the legal issues that have threatened to derail his campaign. However, some say that the borderline consensus he had enjoyed until very recently can no longer be taken for granted.

For the first time in a while, historically significant and influential Republican Party figures are questioning Trump’s supposed infallibility and challenging his firm “Make America Great Again” base. Among them are former Vice President Mike Pence, former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, former President George W. Bush and former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter Liz Cheney, who used to be a party leader.

Moreover, some are closely monitoring trends within a prominent and influential voting bloc of the American right, one that the Republicans have heavily relied on since the days of Ronald Reagan: evangelical Christians. Although the vast majority of evangelicals remain loyal to Trump, some projections indicate that we will see small shifts within certain conservative circles that are more focused on personal behavior than the theological dogma that has historically fueled evangelical votes for the Republican Party.

Despite the media buzz that the Democratic National Convention is expected to generate, which could improve Harris’ standing in the polls, Musk and X’s entry into the ring in support of Trump could cancel out all the points the Democrats have scored.

The Democrats received a reasonable bump in support, as several swing state polls demonstrate, after Biden withdrew from the race following his disastrous debate with Trump. These modest gains were reaffirmed after a consensus around naming Harris emerged smoothly. No such consensus emerged around Hillary Clinton, who lost the votes of many of Sanders’ supporters.

Finally, Harris’ choosing of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate was seen as a positive step by voters who consider themselves to be part of the traditional base of the Democratic Party. This bloc includes low-income rural farmers and small landowners, as well as the unskilled working class in the Rust Belt, who have been hit hard as a result of the decline in manufacturing and mining.

Musk and X’s entry into the ring in support of Trump could cancel out all the points the Democrats have scored.

Eyad Abu Shakra

In fact, Walz’s first speech, in which he proudly highlighted his humble family background and hard work, struck a chord with many poor and lower-middle-class Democratic voters. This bloc had abandoned the Democratic Party during the rise of Reagan in the 1980s, being known as “Reagan Democrats” since then.

Anyone familiar with modern American history knows that this segment of the electorate (Reagan Democrats), along with the evangelical religious right and the economic (fiscal) right, is the Republican base.

Trump’s current base is also made up of this trio, alongside the isolationist and nationalist MAGA movement. However, the decisive factor this November will be the extent to which Trump benefits from Musk’s support and explicit opposition to the Democratic ticket.

Musk’s position and the degree of influence he can exert are two very important factors in this battle.

• Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. X: @eyad1949 This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.